نشریه آینده پژوهی مدیریت
سال نوزدهم شماره 1 (پیاپی 76، بهار 1387)

Advertising is one of the critical factors for success of any organization, so that advertising plans is implemented with regarding effective factors such as marketing mix, environmental factors and marketing goals in consumer's buying decision making process. In This paper a dynamic model for evaluating the effectiveness of using advertising media is introduced. In this model the media planning is employed based on internal and environmental parameters of organizations and their interactions, by using the expert’s consults as linguistic fuzzy values. A multiple criteria decision making model is used to assign optimal budget to advertising media.

Often it said that: “you will not able to manage if could not measure” and “every thing will be executable if it could be measured.” Despite abundant prompts have been done about measurement of social capital by the researchers around the world, regretfully, there is a significant weakness which is the lack of unanimity about measuring method of these phenomena between them. Importantly, the first step in the measuring every entity is definition of its features and attributes. So, this article has been started by mentioning various definitions of social capital, pursuing by social capital measuring methods by emphesizing on disagreement of experts’ views. Among the qualitative modells; SCAT modell, presented by by Bin & Hix; CRLRA, developed by Falk & Kilpatric as well as Krishna and Sherader have been introuced, then quantitatives modells including Snigders, Patnam and Fukuyama demonstrated and following that, measurable and economical patterns in order to measuring social capital explained. Suggested pattern has been intruduced after presenting of conceptual pattern.In this stage, four dimentions of social capital have been considered and the relative components of each dimention introduced and following at components measuring indexes illustrated with tables and form. At the end, regarding the experimental execution of this model in the Sience and Research of Islamic Azad University, executive steps as well as some results of the research have been explained breifly.

Organization development and improvement of work procedures is one of the most fundamental steps in any organization. But, the important point in “organization development” is that, it is a planned and conscious change regarding the development of capabilities and abilities which lead to high performance, effectiveness,efficiency and organizational health. It is based on institutionalizing new values, and creating employees’ confidence in the organization. First, this idea emerged from Kurt Lewin indicating: unfreezing, change and refreezing. Then, Greiner emphasized on development and change as a process of systematic and interrelated change. Later, Levitte designed a model different than Lewin and Greiner. He looked at the organization as a system comprising four parts: organizational functions, structure, technology, and manpower. According to him, a manager should be careful of the effect of each of these factors might have on the other. In short, organization development from these views will follow the study of the organizational problems, diagnosing them, developing plan for improvement and change, implementing the changes and eventually, evaluation and the feedback. Consequently, informing the management about the results.

This paper presents an alternative to the standard mean-variance efficient frontier model underpinning modern portfolio theory applications. We present a more practical alternative - A Mean Semivariance efficient frontier - that takes into consideration advances in “Post Modern Portfolio Theory” as it pertains to asset allocation. The implications for advisors and planners are profound: An investor’s minimal acceptable return is a critical determinant of their optimal portfolio; Efficient frontiers need not be continuous, reflecting the realities of market behavior and demonstrated volatility; This new method for calculating frontiers is a preferred device for developing strategic asset allocations. What is so efficient about the “efficient frontier?” The Markowitz (1952) model is employed to determine the optimal mix of risky securities. This methodology involves determining what the minimum risk combination of securities or asset classes is for a given return. Risk, in this context, is defined as the standard deviation of returns of a composite portfolio. By plotting these risk-return combinations, an “efficient frontier” is generated (with the “efficient” part being the upper boundary). Is this really the preferred way to look at risk and use it in portfolio selection? If it is not, then is this frontier really “efficient?” In this paper we have modified the traditional Markowitz paradigm by redefining risk. The definition of risk we employ in this paper is “Semi-Standard Deviation” instead of “Standard Deviation”. Then we have constructed efficient frontier for top fifty securities of Tehran stock exchange using Downside Risk approach or “Mean-Semivariance” method. In this research we achieved more efficient frontier using this method than the traditional one.

As internet usage increases world wide, one important objective of firms on the web is effective communications with consumer. This study looks at the factors that can affect customers’ purchase & sale website, and it models the behavior of consumers when they are confronted with the navigational characteristics of an internet site. The model of consumers’ web navigational behavior designed by Marie-odile Richard and Ramdas Chandra are taken into account to empirically test. Factors in this study are: Challenge, skills, Interactivity, Reasons to visit a website, need for cognition, optimum stimulation level, Navigational cues, site involvement, Exploratory behavior, Attitudes toward the site, pre Purchase intentions. The data were collected online from the home page of on Iraneservice site. We use structural equations modeling to test 10 major hypotheses and 28 sub hypotheses. Statistical analysis of this research is done using Lisrel& SPSS software. The findings generally indicate, what type of consumers (according to their skills, challenge, need for cognition, optimum stimulation level, etc.) are more likely to seek product related information from the internet, what is the influence of navigational characteristics, and under what circumstances the engage in this activity (reasons to visit a web site). In addition, with know the positioning of information search in the buying decision process, if marketers can identify which consumer segments in their market niche rely more heavily on navigational characteristics, and how to decrease the difficulty of navigating on their site for novice surfers.

In order to develop any strategy, it is essential to first identify opportunities, threats, weak and strong points. Assessment of technology level provides the possibility of concentrating on weak andstrong points. Technology assessment, through investigation of technologic capability level, identifies weak and strong fields at the specified technology, and creates the required field for decision making in regard with expansion of technologic capabilities. The results of technology assessment have a direct effect on decision making process in the field of technology transfer or expansion of internal research capabilities. After specifying the weak points, action can be taken to identify ways for strengthening these points through more advanced technologies, and at higher levels. This paper presents a model for assessment of technologic capability level. This model was tested on ten automotive parts manufacturers under the superintendence of SAPCO. After studying different models of Technology Capability Assessment and the efficiency of each, a number of these models were selected as basis and foundation of assessment models. However, considering that sheer use of these models and their proposed indexes did not have any effective application in Iran, localized and applicable indexes were prepared, and then, using questionnaire, capability level of automotive parts manufacturers was assessed. Using this model, capability level of manufacturers was investigated in four fields of hardware, info ware, human ware, and organization ware.

The project performance monitoring tools are not only for insuring the success of the project, but they provide the proper input for management decision making processes. In project progress measurement methods survey, no complete methodology was found. Also, early detection shows that without a strategic vision, a manager can’t close the project successfully. However, progress and the subsequent benefits of program management and its impact are often understimated in program implementation planning. This paper will explore traditional methods deficiencies, and then introduce PBE (Project Balanced Evaluation) as a new approach to project monitoring. This is done by using a modified version of the Balanced Scorecard evaluation tool and the application of EVM in this approach. The Balanced Scorecard was developed as a tool for strategic management. With this modification, PBE acts as a useful tool for project management.

One of the main activities of the commercial banks is to offer financial facilities. Usually, these financial facilities are considered as a main asset and a primary source for bank revenues. These facilities can also bring most risks for the banks. Two major activities of each bank are to attract and lend out funds. The succession degree of a bank extremely depends on the optimum allocation of the funds. The aims of this research consist on designing a mathematical model to optimize the allocation of funds for commercial banks, designing a software for portfolio management of facilities, attracting profitable customers and decreasing delayed or unpaid debts. In This research, Islamic contracts are used for modeling and the credit risk is defined by the probability of a costumer's default. To avoid complication of the model and problem solutions, which are caused by the plurality of the decision making variables and the constraints, a linear programming model have been used. The statistical population is state commercial banks and the sample is the Bank of Mellat, using the year 2004 data. The main reason to choose the Bank of Mellat were accessibility and availability of the statistical data and bank information. The Designed model and the software attained from this research can be used in all commercial banks and financial and credit institutions.